Following the results of the election to the eighteenth Lok Sabha on the 4th of June, 2024, there has been a flurry of reactions ranging from the familiar space of television debates to the fast- emerging digital arena of social media, where memes have expressed not only the witty humour and creativity we harbour, but also lent a subtle glimpse into the nation’s mood. However, amongst the numerous inferences being drawn from the data of voting percentages, preference, etc., it has become clear that politically the majority of Indians cannot be generalized into categories of ardent ultranationalists who repose their unconditional and often uncritical faith in a single person but rather have chosen to concentrate their political enthusiasm on issues concerning rising unemployment, increasing inflation, deepening inequality and the rising tensions of communal disharmony across the country. While the aspirations of the Indian elector might bring the delusions of the political system to a new reality, the restoration of the missing space for a visible and hopefully formidable opposition is another key takeaway from this election result. The verdict on the 4th of June, 2024, made it clear that the absence of a formidable opposition in the last decade, aided by constant defections and allegations of employment of central investigating agencies against members of rival political parties, will not be remotely sufficient in eroding the faithofthepeopleofIndiaindemocracyanddemocraticinstitutions. Overall,ifthereisanyreal victor in this election, it is the will of the people of India.

So, what about the ruling party, the BJP? Is this the beginning of its decline? How misaligned were its ambitions and war cry of “iss baar, 400 paar” (We expect more than 400 seats this time) from the apparent political reality of India? Can the BJP win elections on its own, without the support of the RSS at the grassroot level? How will Prime Minister Narendra Modi navigate his party in a coalition government with key allies such as the TDP and the JD(U), and their demands? Will defections to the BJP from rival and ally parties still continue in its erstwhile fervor? How far will the BJP deliver on its poll promises while being a part of the NDA? While such questions seem tempting to ponder upon, it is premature to indulge in any prophecy on the political future of the BJP or the NDA at this moment. However, it is worthwhile to note the return of coalition politics after a decade and in such a scenario it would be interesting to note how the BJP balances the interests of its major allies considering that since 2014, its dependence on allies for taking and implementing important decisions, has been almost negligible. Furthermore, in the last decade, non-BJP state governments, such as the TMC led West Bengal, the DMK led Tamil Nadu and the LDF led Kerala, have raised issues with the Union Government over the alleged denial of transfer of due funds to them. In the case of West Bengal, one of the major reasons for the success of the TMC over the BJP was the issue of “discrimination by the Centre” in disbursement of funds from the Union Government to the state for various schemes, which the former successfully highlighted in almost all of their political rallies and was the dominant theme of the speeches made by CM Mamta Banerjee and Abhishek Banerjee. From the results of this election, it seems that this campaign has struck a chord with the majority of the voters in the state. While the press and media all across the state and India highlighted the alleged scam in recruitment of schoolteachers and the brutalization of women and land grabbing rampage by strongmen having ties to the party in Sandeshkhali, it was not enough to dent the electoral voter base of the TMC, many of whom claim to have benefitted from the state sponsored schemes such as direct financial assistance through Lokhhir Bhandar, Kanyashree, etc. Similarly, prior to the Karnataka Assembly elections in 2023, the entry of AMUL into Bengaluru’s market wasn’t received well in the state, with protests led by the Congress insisting that such a move would undermine the milk brand ‘Nandini’ which belonged to the Karnataka Milk Federation and thereby hurt the sentiments of the people of Karnataka. Thus, relations between the union and the state governments, especially with regard to non-BJP state governments and rival political parties in the state, has remained uneasy. With the resuming of coalition politics again, it would be worthwhile to note how BJP addresses regional issues especially with the non-BJP ruled states. Furthermore, being dependent on two major regional parties for retaining majority in the Lok Sabha, the BJP would have to tread carefully when it comes to addressing regional aspirations and resolving differences between the union and state governments. One may say that federalism will get a fair boost and regional voices will again echo louder in the halls of the Parliament owing to the resurgence of regional parties in determining the fate of national politics. Moreover, while understanding the larger role of regional parties in national politics, what is worthwhile to note is how the BJP will now address popular protests such as the farmers’ protest near the Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh region or the reservation for the Maratha community led by Manoj Jarange Patil in Maharashtra. It is important to note that while these protests may or may not directly pose a challenge to the BJP’s electoral voter base, they will challenge its allies as has been seen in Maharashtra with the Shiv Sena and the NCP. Therefore, the BJP will need to be more cautious when it comes to preserving the interests of its coalition partners.

Another important takeaway of this election has been the rise of a nearly decimated INC and the arrival of a visible opposition in the form of INDIA. The emergence of Rahul Gandhi as slowly developing alternative to the BJP’s Narendra Modi is becoming apparent. That does not rule out the new contours of a new Bloc that shall be able to pose as the new alternative. Transparency is a massive determining factor in the gamut of election politics and it is more often than fictitious that the element of asset accumulation and asset magnification across the parties have actually sidelined the idea of fair and free election and this election was no exception.

Though there has been a big blow on the numerical equivalence of muscle flexing at the Parliament for the majority government, they have not left their pans dried while going back to gagging the voices that questioned the authoritarianism like Arundhati Roy and Sheikh Showkat Hussain for the public speech made during Azaadi. There are greater concerns with regards to understanding the vein of the voters, the decline in the fanaticism of sort and that amplified in the electoral results in 2024. There have been rampant attempts often to significantly chop off the wings of India’s pluralism and embrace a homogenized, unilateral national identity by keeping religion at the forefront of most election manifesto-written and assimilated. The changes in the trends can be correlated to what Roy writes in Algebra of Infinite Justice -

"The only way to contain the rise of majoritarianism is to strengthen the forces of regionalism and the politics of federalism."

The elections in 2024 proved how the regional parties could hold the grounds stronger and counter several burning issues that have been unaddressed for long- the polarization in politics, the issue of citizenship, the necessity to address the localized issues at large and decentralization of the mandate. Ashish Ranjan in his article, Rise of the Regionals for Frontline mentions how the 2024 elections was the closest of the bipolar elections in some time where parties not a part of the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) Bloc suffered a greater blow. The electoral trends in the regional elections also showed how the paths paved a way for the regional parties to enter the fair game on the wide national canvas. But, is the vision of governance starkly different between the INDIA and NDA? The greater debate in the circus of post-poll negotiations for seat sharing showed that perhaps the opposition also needs to devise effective strategies to improve next time on the tally sheet. It is also seen how BJP single-handedly had been able to attract the single voter bloc of the OBCs (Other Backward Classes) from the INC and Mandal Parties of the Northern Belt. This also throws question on the fact whether the Mandal mobilization could touch the lives of those from the lower rungs of the reserved category, while BJP grabbed the same opportunity by the Rohini Commission to facilitate the subcategorization within OBCs.

Besides these, New Welfarism (term coined by economist Arvind Subramanian) of the Modi Government has also been beneficial, besides direct cash transfer schemes to avoid fraudulent middlemen and agents from sucking out a chunk of the benefits. Another factor that helped the NDA distinctly is the ability to thin or bridge the gaps between common and elite issues that plagues the citizens. Hence, the issues of foreign policy has not been a major contributing factor this time. But, India’s G20 Presidency has perhaps been one singular instance that has bound the citizens together in celebrating the glory of the country, though its impact on the electoral trend can be forcefully imposed as a positive consequence.

In spite of all the fallacies in the way of structuring a narrative for the electoral politics, the primary concern remains that the widespread popularity of the party that won by majority votes is perhaps seeing their grounds weakening. Ray writes, “across the world, we see a pattern of rising authoritarianism, where leaders use nationalism, religion, and identity to consolidate power and crush opposition."(The Silence is the Loudest Sound). In a democracy, authoritarianism must not survive, and the patterns of pluralism must spread wider, bringing people together, all while embracing the suggestions of the opposition, in order to deradicalize the state for a better future.