US Diary: The United States casts the ballot for its 47th President today and the result will get declared soon, or after a protracted battle as we saw the last time around. However, it will take many months or even a couple of years before the most critical question that defined this election gets answered to the satisfaction of the entire world. That question is whether the next POTUS will change the world as we know it, for the better. The rest of the world, too, will have to wait an equal amount of time before it can reconcile with the fact that their lives have been transformed either way by the new POTUS.

Then, there is always the third outcome, which has hardly made any global impact. If that is how things would play out, this hugely hyped election that has viscerally cleaved the country in half and torn the people apart, will require a long period of convalescence. That period of healing will also raise the question if the beatification and demonization by either side about the next leader of the free world was all hyperbole. Something that was peddled by the two candidates solely for the purpose of swaying the voters their way.

Elevating this line of thought another notch, comes the natural corollary. Was the rhetoric about the outcome of the election being life-altering for the people of US, depending on who won, not a bit of a stretch? Will the US citizens, half-way street citizens, millions of aliens as they call non-citizens of various hues and finally, the illegal immigrants find it to be the same old grind, their life stories no different in the next four years?

Now, let’s ponder the more immediate issue at hand, voting day. Among the registered voters, millions have already cast their ballot, and the remaining millions will do so today. No doubt they will be buoyed by the thought that their votes really count, given how closely poised the race is between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. This sharply contrasts many countries where elections were held in recent times, where landslide majority for the major incumbents was the media call, painting the inevitability of the outcome. For that very reason, there is still hope among the US citizens, that what they do with their vote could make or break the next President.

Yet, one cannot say this how a majority of the US voters consider the weight of their ballot. Certainly not in a majority of the states, which are either blue or red bastions. Sure, the voters in 40-plus states have little option but to reconcile to this reality. Yet, things are different in the seven swing states, which are the real battlegrounds this election – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

All of them, except Nevada which has remained with Democrats the past four times, flipped their allegiance from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020. This time too, things won’t be much different as the major determinant in who gets over 270 electoral votes and becomes the next president will be shaped by how the 93 electoral votes from these seven states get divided by Harris and Trump. That’s the widely agreed upon reality this time, as it has been in the past, mostly. Unless there is a seismic shift in the voting pattern in the Blue and Red states.

Imagine a matrix that has the Republicans voting by the dozens for Harris in the Red states. On the flip side, conceive a storyline where groups of Democrats are swept by a pro-Trump tide in the Blue states. Quite unlikely to happen, as the purists would say. But if such a situation were to develop, the number of swing states will rise from seven and the electoral votes up for grabs, from 93. Mere conjectures, given the highly fractured mindset of the US citizens on either side of the political chasm that is presently on display.

Shorn of wishful thinking, the true business of electing the President of the United States today will in all likelihood boil down to how the voting goes in those seven states, led by Pennsylvania with 19 electoral votes. Georgia and North Carolina are almost as significant with 16 decisive electoral votes apiece, with Michigan breathing down their neck with 15 votes up for grabs. Arizona with 11 and Wisconsin with 10 electoral votes respectively will not be denied their hour of glory. Nevada with only 6 electoral votes and all going the Dem way the last four elections will have to flip the Trump way to justify its swing status though.

To get a taste of how insurmountable the Red and Blue bastions really are for those deciding to buck the trend is a case from Broward County, Florida. Tom, once a Republican, has now turned Democrat but thinks it prudent to keep his intent to vote Harris a secret. Because, he is apprehensive how it will jell with his co-workers and friends who are openly for Trump. No doubt this may be quite the situation for a Trump supporter in any of the Blue states, unless the individual is not averse to being taunted by his friends for not doing the `right’ thing. Imagine 40-odd states being thus claimed, almost equally, as irrevocably Red and Blue in color! They are not unlike those countries where the incumbents are pre-election favorites, to win by runaway margins.

True, the Democrats did go all out to wean away disgruntled Republicans who baulk at Trump’s leadership. It is a moot point if all those public chastisements against Trump by his former mates translated into votes at the grassroots level. The Republicans too have been going guns blazing with personal attacks on Harris that gravitate to sowing doubts about her ability to lead the nation. It is clearly their fervent hope that what worked against Hillary Clinton would stick in the case of Kamala Harris too, despite the chances of lightning striking twice at the same spot fetching up a bit low on the probability scale.

The dust is finally settling over the campaign trail, and what comes across loud and clear as we peek back at the long-winding road leading to November 5 is a mixed bag. It is an assortment of goods comprising electioneering at its best and worst, loads of mud-slinging, one-upmanship aplenty, a national media that was openly partisan, a clutch of former Presidents and first ladies, a smattering of celebrities and billionaires espousing causes and candidates.

The race really started in earnest with the Union of the State address by Joe Biden but went into tailspin as he debated with Trump. At that point, the US appeared to be a land of very few options as the Presidential race pitted two septuagenarians, both given to rambling, one eventually proving to be worse than the other. Then came Harris, the lady in the shining armor ready to slay the beast. Yet, the people continued to bemoan their plight, still lamenting their limited choice for the next President.

Some sub-text here: A whole lot of Democrats still believe Joe Biden would have won in 2016, had not Hillary been pitched ahead of him. The Republicans, a multitude of them, are unabashedly convinced Trump should have got a second term in 2020. Therefore, by extension, they swear he deserves a second chance this time.

Post script: The US will not disintegrate or the world be plunged into apocalypse just because either Trump or Harris wins or for that matter loses. Surely, there will be an election in 2028, followed by one in 2032 when the 50th President of the United States will assume office. The rest is mere chatter.

- Vinod Mathew is a senior journalist and author; views expressed are his own.