Chinese President Xi Jinping will arrive in New Delhi on Saturday for the 18th BRICS Summit, marking his first visit to India in seven years and putting the cautious improvement in ties between the two Asian powers to a crucial test.
Xi is expected to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi at around 6 pm on Saturday. The talks are likely to focus on the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the wider boundary dispute, trade, investment and efforts to restore business and people-to-people ties.
Xi's last India visit was in October 2019, when he met Modi for an informal summit in Mamallapuram. Relations deteriorated sharply months later following the deadly Galwan Valley clash in eastern Ladakh in June 2020.
The confrontation led to a prolonged military standoff and a broader deterioration in political and economic relations. India subsequently tightened scrutiny of Chinese investments, restricted several Chinese apps and sought to reduce dependence on Chinese technology.
A thaw began to emerge in 2024 after India and China reached an understanding on patrolling arrangements along parts of the disputed frontier. Modi and Xi later resumed high-level engagement, including meetings on the sidelines of the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summits.
Direct flights have also resumed, some visa procedures have been eased and steps have been taken towards restoring border trade and the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra.
Despite the diplomatic thaw, the boundary dispute remains the biggest obstacle to a broader reset.
India and China continue to maintain substantial military deployments along their roughly 3,500-kilometre frontier. New Delhi remains particularly concerned about Chinese military activity and infrastructure in the eastern sector, including Arunachal Pradesh, which Beijing claims as "South Tibet".
In August, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval travelled to Beijing for the 25th round of Special Representatives' talks on the boundary issue. The two sides agreed on an eight-point understanding covering border management and measures to maintain peace along the frontier.
Military-level talks have also continued, including a Corps Commander-level meeting in the eastern sector on September 6.
However, the larger territorial dispute remains unresolved.
Economic ties present another contradiction.
Bilateral goods trade reached around $151 billion in 2025-26, making China India's largest goods trading partner. But India imported roughly $131 billion worth of Chinese goods while exporting only about $19 billion, leaving a trade deficit of around $112 billion.
New Delhi has been encouraging domestic manufacturing and trying to reduce dependence on Chinese machinery, electronics, chemicals and industrial components.
Yet Chinese inputs remain important to several Indian industries, making a rapid reduction in dependence difficult.
The challenge for both governments is therefore not simply increasing trade, but making the relationship more balanced and predictable.
India's concerns also extend to China's massive hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet, which enters India as the Brahmaputra.
The project, being developed near the Arunachal Pradesh border, is expected to have a capacity of 60,000 megawatts and has raised concerns in India over downstream water flows, environmental impact and the strategic implications of Chinese infrastructure close to the frontier.
New Delhi has sought greater transparency and information sharing from Beijing.
Xi's visit comes against a wider geopolitical backdrop.
India and China remain important members of BRICS and have common interests in areas such as trade, climate change and reform of global institutions. At the same time, they remain strategic competitors.
India's growing partnership with the United States, Japan and Australia through the Quad remains a source of concern for Beijing. New Delhi, meanwhile, continues to be wary of China's close relationship with Pakistan.
The changing US-China relationship and American trade policies also give India and China an incentive to keep their bilateral relationship stable even while strategic competition continues.
The Modi-Xi meeting could provide momentum on border management, trade, investment and business travel. But expectations of a dramatic breakthrough are likely to remain limited.
For India, the key test will be whether China can help create a more stable border while providing greater predictability in economic relations.
For China, the challenge will be to convince India that deeper economic engagement does not create additional strategic vulnerabilities.
Seven years after Xi's last visit, the relationship is certainly in a better place than it was immediately after Galwan. But the two countries remain competitors with unresolved differences.
The most realistic outcome may therefore not be a complete reset, but managed competition — keeping the border stable, expanding areas of economic cooperation and preventing strategic rivalry from turning into another confrontation.
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