The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears set to make a comeback in Delhi after 27 years, as early trends from the 2025 Assembly election vote count show the party taking a decisive lead over the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). If these trends hold, it would mark a major political shift and a referendum on AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal, whose party has faced allegations of corruption and misgovernance in the lead-up to the polls.

BJP Crosses Majority Mark, AAP Trails Behind

Counting began at 8 a.m., with early trends indicating a strong showing for the BJP. The party surged ahead in 48 of the 70 Assembly seats, comfortably crossing the majority mark. AAP, which had dominated the last two elections, was trailing with 21 seats, while the Congress was leading in just one constituency.

AAP Faces Major Setback; Kejriwal and Key Leaders Behind

Arvind Kejriwal, contesting from the high-profile New Delhi seat, was trailing behind BJP’s Parvesh Verma. The party’s other top leaders, including Chief Minister Atishi and former Deputy CM Manish Sisodia, were also struggling in their respective constituencies of Kalkaji and Jangpura.

Voting took place under tight security across 19 counting centers. Exit polls had already predicted a BJP victory, with Congress hoping to make marginal gains after being wiped out in the last two elections.

Declining Voter Turnout and Transparency Concerns

The 2025 Delhi elections, held on February 5, saw a voter turnout of 60.54%, marking a decline of approximately 2.5 percentage points from 2020. The Election Commission of India (ECI) reported that 50.42 lakh male voters and 44.08 lakh female voters had cast their ballots.

Among constituencies, Mustafabad recorded the highest turnout at 69.01%, while Mehrauli registered the lowest at 53.02%. In the aftermath of polling, Arvind Kejriwal raised concerns about transparency in voter turnout data. In response, the Delhi Chief Election Officer’s office published the figures on the ECI’s Voter Turnout App, while AAP launched its own platform for the same purpose.

Key Constituency Battles

The elections saw high-stakes contests in several constituencies:

• New Delhi: Arvind Kejriwal vs. BJP’s Parvesh Verma vs. Congress’s Sandeep Dikshit
• Kalkaji: Chief Minister Atishi vs. BJP’s Ramesh Bidhuri vs. Congress’s Alka Lamba
• Jangpura: Former Deputy CM Manish Sisodia vs. BJP’s Tarvinder Singh Marwah vs. Congress’s Farhad Suri

Exit Polls Indicate BJP’s Return to Power

If the exit poll projections hold true, the BJP is poised to reclaim Delhi after nearly three decades. The average of five exit polls suggests that the BJP is expected to win 39 seats—comfortably above the 36-seat majority mark—while AAP is projected to secure around 30 seats, a steep fall from its 2020 tally of 62. Congress is expected to win 1-2 seats.

However, some pollsters, including Mind Brink and WeePreside, predicted that AAP might still hold onto power with 44 to 52 seats, while Matrize forecast a hung assembly with BJP securing 35-40 seats and AAP winning 32-37.

BJP’s Comeback, AAP’s Challenges, and Congress’s Struggles

Despite facing anti-incumbency and corruption allegations, AAP campaigned on its governance record and welfare initiatives. The BJP, determined to reclaim Delhi, focused on accusations of misgovernance and corruption, while Congress continued its fight for political relevance in the capital.

During the final stretch of campaigning, tensions escalated when AAP accused the BJP-led Haryana government of "poisoning Yamuna water," sparking heated exchanges between the two parties.

AAP’s rise in Delhi began in 2013 with a short-lived government, followed by landslide victories in 2015 and 2020. If current trends hold, BJP is set to break AAP’s dominance and return to power in the capital after nearly three decades.