Exit polls indicate that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is on course to regain power in Delhi after nearly three decades, dealing a major blow to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). This comes as a setback for Arvind Kejriwal, who resigned as Chief Minister last year amid corruption allegations. The Congress, which once dominated Delhi under Sheila Dikshit, is projected to win just one or two seats.

BJP Expected to Secure Majority

An average of five exit polls suggests that the BJP will win around 39 seats, surpassing the majority mark of 36 in the 70-seat Assembly. Meanwhile, AAP, grappling with a decade-long incumbency, is predicted to be reduced to 30 seats. However, past elections have shown that exit polls are not always accurate.

Mixed Predictions from Different Polling Agencies

While most pollsters foresee a BJP victory, a few anticipate a different outcome. Mind Brink projects 44–49 seats for AAP, while WeePreside predicts an even stronger showing with 46–52 seats. Matrize, on the other hand, foresees a closely contested election, giving the BJP 35–40 seats and AAP 32–37.

Other agencies predict a more decisive BJP win. PMarq estimates 39–49 seats for the BJP, while Times Now JVC suggests a range of 39–45 seats. People's Pulse offers the most favorable prediction for the BJP, estimating 51–60 seats and leaving AAP with just 10–19.

BJP Celebrates, AAP Dismisses Projections

Following the exit poll results, BJP’s Delhi unit chief Virendra Sachdeva echoed Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “AAP-da (disaster) is leaving” remark, expressing confidence in a landslide victory.

AAP, however, rejected the projections. Senior leader Reena Gupta asserted that the party would secure a "historic win" and that Kejriwal would return as Chief Minister for a fourth term. She pointed out that previous exit polls in 2013, 2015, and 2020 had also underestimated AAP, yet the party had outperformed predictions each time.

What May Have Worked in BJP’s Favor

The data suggests that the Congress may have cut into AAP’s traditional voter base, particularly among Dalits and Muslims, indirectly benefiting the BJP. Additionally, the saffron party appears to have gained traction in jhuggi clusters and unauthorized colonies, key strongholds that helped AAP win in previous elections.

BJP’s relentless attacks on AAP, particularly over the alleged liquor policy scam and the controversy surrounding Kejriwal’s luxurious residence renovation, may have influenced voters. Furthermore, the recent Union Budget, which included tax relief for the middle class, could have bolstered BJP’s appeal.

A BJP victory in Delhi is also expected to have wider political implications, particularly in Bihar, which goes to polls later this year. The large Purvanchali voter base in Delhi—comprising people from eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar—could provide insights into the electoral mood in the eastern state.

With vote counting set for February 8, all eyes are now on the final results to see if the exit poll predictions hold true.