India is expected to experience below-normal monsoon rainfall in June this year, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The IMD has indicated that the average rainfall for the month across the country is likely to be less than 92 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

Many regions in India have been enduring a severe heatwave over the past few months, compounding the challenges posed by the anticipated rainfall deficit.

June Sees Significant Rainfall Deficit

Since the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala on May 30, the country has recorded 20 percent less rainfall than usual. The monsoon system showed little progress between June 12 and 18, according to the IMD.

Despite the slow start, conditions are now favorable for the monsoon to advance into several regions, including parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, coastal Andhra Pradesh, northwest Bay of Bengal, Bihar, and Jharkhand within the next three to four days.

From June 1 to 18, India received 64.5 mm of rainfall, which is 20 percent below the LPA of 80.6 mm. Breakdown by region shows northwest India received 10.2 mm (70 percent below normal), central India 50.5 mm (31 percent below normal), the southern peninsula 106.6 mm (16 percent above normal), and east and northeast India 146.7 mm (15 percent below normal).

The IMD has forecasted normal to above-normal rainfall in most areas of the southern peninsula and some parts of northeast India. However, below-normal rainfall is expected in many areas of northwest and adjoining central India, as well as some parts of northeast India.

In a press conference at the end of May, the IMD projected that the country could see above-normal rainfall during the four-month monsoon season from June to September, with cumulative rainfall estimated at 106 percent of the LPA of 87 cm.

The monsoon season is vital for India's agriculture, as 52 percent of the net cultivated area depends on it. It also plays a crucial role in replenishing reservoirs needed for drinking water and power generation. June and July are particularly important for agriculture, as the majority of sowing for the Kharif crop occurs during this period.