Recent polling by CNN indicates a shifting landscape in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, with Vice President Kamala Harris emerging as a formidable contender compared to President Joe Biden. Following Biden's lackluster performance in the first presidential debate, held in Atlanta on June 27, there has been mounting pressure within the Democratic Party for him to consider stepping aside.
According to the CNN poll conducted by Social Science Research Solutions (SSRS), former President Donald Trump currently holds a six-point lead over Biden in voter support. However, in a hypothetical matchup, Harris is nearly neck-and-neck with Trump, garnering 45% support compared to Trump's 47%, a statistical tie given the margin of error.
The poll highlights Harris's stronger appeal among key demographics, including women, where she outpaces Biden by six points against Trump (50% to 44%), and independents, where she leads by nine points (43% to 34%) over Biden.
The survey also tested other potential Democratic candidates against Trump, revealing similar voter preferences to Biden's current standings. California Governor Gavin Newsom, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer each trail Trump by varying margins, reflecting the uncertainty and competitive nature of the upcoming election cycle.
Despite calls within the Democratic ranks for Biden to reconsider his candidacy, his campaign remains steadfast that he will continue in the race. The prospect of replacing a sitting president presents significant challenges and risks, both politically and procedurally, complicating any potential transition.
Meanwhile, Republican confidence in Trump's candidacy has surged, with 83% of GOP voters now believing the party is better off with him, up from 72% earlier this year. Biden's approval rating has plummeted to a record low of 36%, with a significant 45% strongly disapproving of his performance, marking the highest disapproval rate recorded in CNN's polling.
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre declined to comment directly on the poll results, emphasizing that campaign matters are best addressed by the Biden team. While speculation continues about alternative Democratic contenders, including former First Lady Michelle Obama, who leads Trump by a substantial 11 points in another recent poll, her office has reiterated she will not be running for president in the current election cycle.
This evolving electoral landscape underscores the volatility and strategic considerations shaping the path to the 2024 presidential election.