The Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, is on track to emerge as the leading force in Canada's federal election, according to early projections from CBC News. While the Liberals are expected to win the most seats in the 343-member House of Commons, it remains uncertain whether they will secure the 172 seats needed for a clear majority.

The latest counting trends mark a remarkable turnaround for the Liberals, who had been trailing until a surge of nationalist sentiment — sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive rhetoric and trade threats — reshaped the campaign landscape.

Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre had sought to turn the election into a referendum on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, focusing on rising living costs and immigration pressures. However, Trump's controversial remarks, including proposals to annex Canada as the 51st U.S. state, galvanized public opinion and shifted momentum back to the Liberals.

Following Trudeau’s resignation, Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, assumed leadership of the Liberal Party and the premiership. His technocratic background and steady approach contrasted sharply with the turbulence stirred by Trump’s comments, helping to rally voters behind him.

Record Early Voting and Tight Race

A record 7.3 million Canadians had already cast their ballots before election day, according to Elections Canada, out of 28.9 million eligible voters. Polls opened nationwide with the last ones closing at 10 PM EDT (7:30 AM IST). Despite a closely fought race, the early vote counts suggest the Liberals maintain a slim lead.

In Canada's "first-past-the-post" electoral system, securing individual district wins is crucial, not just the overall share of the vote.

Carney has notably distanced himself from Trudeau’s political legacy, presenting a refreshed image of the Liberal Party during the campaign.

Trump’s Influence Looms Over the Election

Trump reemerged as a major factor in the election’s final days, declaring intentions to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian-made automobiles and once again suggesting that Canada should consider joining the United States. His remarks triggered widespread patriotic backlash among Canadian voters.

In a social media message, Trump wrote:
"Good luck to the Great people of Canada. Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power for free, boost your industries without tariffs or taxes — if Canada becomes the cherished 51st state of the United States of America."

Trump’s comments were widely condemned across Canada, reinforcing voter resolve to maintain national sovereignty and further strengthening the Liberals' standing.

If projections hold, this will mark the Liberal Party’s fourth straight term in office, with Mark Carney poised to lead Canada through a critical period of economic and political challenges.