After years of conflict and turmoil, the regime of President Bashar al-Assad has collapsed, marking a historic turning point in Syria’s future. Assad’s government fell following a swift offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—a faction previously affiliated with Al-Qaeda—and allied groups. Once considered unshakable, Assad’s rule succumbed to the combined weight of a relentless rebellion and the declining support from his key backers, Russia and Iran.

The Assad Era: From Hope to Devastation

Bashar al-Assad rose to power in 2000, succeeding his father, Hafez al-Assad, who ruled Syria for nearly three decades with authoritarian control. Initially, many Syrians held cautious optimism that Bashar would introduce reforms and modernize the country. However, these hopes faded as he maintained the oppressive structures of his father's regime.

Assad’s legacy is indelibly marked by his response to the 2011 Arab Spring protests, which triggered a brutal civil war. Over 13 years of fighting left more than half a million people dead, displaced millions within Syria, and forced six million to seek refuge abroad. Despite facing a fractured opposition, Assad survived for years with substantial military aid from Russia and Iranian-backed militias, such as Hezbollah.

Yet, recent global and regional developments shifted the balance of power. Russia’s focus on its war in Ukraine and Iran’s preoccupation with internal and external challenges weakened their ability to prop up Assad’s government. Taking advantage of this vacuum, rebel forces swiftly seized key cities, including Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, before capturing Damascus.

A Fragile Transitional Period

Following Assad’s fall, rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, announced the formation of a transitional authority. The caretaker government, led by Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali, has pledged to safeguard state institutions while paving the way for a new leadership chosen by the Syrian people.

Despite these assurances, skepticism persists. HTS’s historical links to extremist organizations raise concerns about its ability—or willingness—to establish a stable, inclusive government. Many fear a return to harsh Islamist rule under the guise of nationalism.

For millions of Syrians displaced within the country or living as refugees, this transitional period offers a glimmer of hope but is also fraught with uncertainty.

Regional and Global Implications

Russia’s Setback

Assad’s fall deals a significant blow to Russian influence in the Middle East. Since 2015, Moscow had been the Syrian regime’s staunchest ally, maintaining strategic military bases in Tartous and Latakia. These outposts were vital for projecting power across the Mediterranean and beyond.

However, Russia’s preoccupation with its war in Ukraine has limited its ability to defend its interests in Syria. The loss of Assad’s regime raises questions about Moscow’s capacity to retain its foothold in the region.

Challenges for Iran

Iran also faces a strategic setback with Assad’s downfall, which disrupts its “Axis of Resistance”—a network connecting Tehran to Hezbollah in Lebanon via Syria. This corridor has been essential for transferring weapons and exerting influence across the region.

With Hezbollah weakened by recent clashes with Israel and Iran’s other proxies under pressure in Yemen and Iraq, Tehran’s ability to respond effectively in Syria is constrained. Israel’s increasing strikes on Iranian assets in Syria further complicate Iran’s position.

Turkey’s Ambiguous Role

Turkey, which hosts over three million Syrian refugees, has a vested interest in the conflict’s resolution. While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan previously called for a diplomatic solution, analysts believe Ankara may have offered indirect support to the HTS offensive, although it denies direct involvement.

Erdogan’s priorities include securing Turkey’s southern borders and countering Kurdish militias in northern Syria, which remain a key concern for Ankara.

Israel’s Calculated Approach

For Israel, the fall of Assad represents both a challenge and an opportunity. While Assad’s removal disrupts Iran’s supply chain to Hezbollah, the rise of HTS introduces a new set of uncertainties. Israel has fortified its presence along the Golan Heights, wary of potential spillovers or attempts by extremist groups to seize Syrian army stockpiles.

Uncertain Prospects for Syria

The end of Assad’s rule is a momentous development, but it does not guarantee peace or stability for Syria. HTS’s extremist roots and the deep scars of war make rebuilding the nation a monumental task. Syrians, both within the country and abroad, await with trepidation and hope as the nation embarks on an uncertain journey toward a new era.