The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has surged ahead in Maharashtra, marking a significant turnaround from its previous performance in the state during the Lok Sabha elections. Meanwhile, in Jharkhand, the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-Congress alliance has defied exit poll predictions to cross the halfway mark.

In Maharashtra, the Mahayuti alliance—comprising the BJP, Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction, and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena—has taken a commanding lead, with trends showing them ahead in 217 out of the 288 seats. The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which includes Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, is trailing with leads in just 59 seats. A majority requires at least 145 seats in the Assembly.

Jharkhand saw a fierce contest early on, but the JMM-led coalition, spearheaded by Chief Minister Hemant Soren, has pulled ahead, leading in 50 out of 81 seats—comfortably above the majority mark of 42. The BJP-led NDA, trailing with leads in 29 seats, is poised to finish second in the state.

In addition to these two key state elections, results are awaited for 48 assembly bypolls across 13 states and two parliamentary seats—Nanded in Maharashtra and Wayanad in Kerala. Wayanad holds special significance for the Congress, as it marks Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s electoral debut after her brother Rahul Gandhi vacated the seat.

Maharashtra recorded a voter turnout of 66.05% in its single-phase election on November 20. Urban areas, such as Mumbai, had a modest turnout of 52.65%, while tribal regions like Gadchiroli saw robust participation at 70%. The Mahayuti alliance seeks re-election, with opposition MVA aiming to stage a comeback after losing power in 2022 when Eknath Shinde’s rebellion toppled Uddhav Thackeray’s government.

Key battles in Maharashtra include Worli, where Aaditya Thackeray of Shiv Sena (UBT) faces a challenge from Milind Deora of Shinde’s faction, and Baramati, which features a family rivalry between Ajit Pawar and his nephew Yugendra Pawar. In Nagpur South West, Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis is up against Congress contender Prafful Gudadhe.

In Jharkhand, the state’s two-phase election concluded on November 20 with a record 67.74% turnout, the highest since its formation in 2000. The JMM-led coalition is striving for a second term, countering the BJP’s aggressive campaign focusing on alleged corruption and governance issues.

High-stakes contests in Jharkhand include Barhait, where Hemant Soren is battling BJP’s Gamaliyan Hembrom, and Gandey, where Kalpana Soren, the Chief Minister’s wife, faces BJP’s Muniya Devi. In Seraikella, a clash between Champai Soren and Ganesh Mahali—both former allies in JMM—adds intrigue, while Jamtara sees Congress’ Irfan Ansari against Sita Soren, Hemant Soren’s sister-in-law.

Predictions from exit polls have been mixed. In Maharashtra, three surveys suggest the Mahayuti alliance is likely to retain power, with estimates around 158 seats. Another poll, however, indicates a close contest with the MVA. In Jharkhand, projections are less consistent, with one poll forecasting the BJP-led NDA as a potential winner with 34 seats, while the INDIA bloc may secure 26. Around 20 seats are too close to predict.

As always, caution is advised with exit polls, as actual results often differ significantly from predictions.