The Congress, buoyed by its improved performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, is projected to close the year on a high note, with exit polls suggesting it could form the next government in Haryana and lead in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) alongside its alliance partner, the National Conference (NC). These predictions come as both regions prepare for final vote counting on October 8.

Haryana: Congress Likely to End BJP’s Decade-Long Rule

In Haryana, an aggregate of seven exit polls indicates the Congress could win 55 out of 90 seats, surpassing the 45-seat majority needed to form the government. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has ruled the state for the past 10 years, is predicted to win just 27 seats, with one poll, Jist-TIF Research, giving the BJP an outside chance of securing up to 37 seats.

Other regional players, such as Abhay Chautala's Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), are forecasted to win two seats, while the BJP’s former ally, the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), is predicted to secure just one. Despite its dominance in neighboring Delhi and Punjab, Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is not expected to win any seats in Haryana.

Jammu and Kashmir: Possible Hung Assembly Looms

In Jammu and Kashmir, which held its first assembly election in a decade, exit polls point to a hung assembly. The Congress-National Conference alliance is expected to secure 43 of the 90 seats, three short of a clear majority. Meanwhile, the BJP is projected to win 27 seats, also far from the majority mark needed to form a government.

Mehbooba Mufti’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is predicted to win seven seats and could emerge as a kingmaker. However, the PDP has already ruled out any alliance with the BJP, citing the need for a "secular alliance."

The BJP-PDP coalition that came to power after the 2014 elections ended in 2018, leading to President's Rule in the state. The BJP has since promised to restore Jammu and Kashmir’s full statehood if it secures a third consecutive term in power at the Centre.

Alliance Challenges and Future Prospects

While the exit polls suggest a close race, forming a government could prove challenging, especially in Jammu and Kashmir, where historical rivalries between the NC and PDP complicate potential alliances. Mehbooba Mufti had earlier proposed that the PDP would step aside if the NC and Congress embraced its stance on resolving the Kashmir issue and reopening key routes in the region.

However, the Congress-NC alliance, part of the Gupkar coalition seeking the restoration of J&K’s statehood, has so far been reluctant to accept the PDP’s terms. With counting day approaching, all eyes are on October 8, when the final outcome will determine the next chapter for both Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir.